Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Post-Brexit Foreign Policy: A Resurgent Great Britain?


With a resounding majority, (472 yay to 117 nay), the House of Commons voted to approve  £31bn plan to revamp the Trident nuclear submarine program with new weapons systems. The next day, UK Foreign Secretary met the US Secretary of State and outlined the main pillars of a post-Brexit foreign policy. Much emphasis on shared values, shared language, shared history, a special relationship and a shared role in the world. 
At a time when the international order is increasingly under stress, challenged by rising powers, an almost perpetual European crisis, Middle East crisis, etc, the leaders of an "extricated Britain" feel they have a window of opportunity to play a role in restoring and regenerating that much weakened international order. The way the UK realigns and redefines its place in the world and its foreign policy mission will be a fundamental development to watch in future months. What we are likely to see though is the renewal of the Anglosphere, an alliance of destiny, heir to the once British Empire, as the main stage for UK initiatives, and coalitional platform. For now, let's watch what Britain does to weather the recession it is forecasted to undergo first.

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Access Denied: Turkey in Europe does not belong

Recent developments in Europe-Turkey relations call for an articulate and thorough reflection on the current nature of the relationships and the prospects for its future evolution. This is especially the case as a result of the Brexit, which may suggest the idea to some that admitting Turkey could make up for the loss of Britain. This reflection must take place outside of politically correct clichés or dominant frames.

The bottom line is that while Association or even Enhanced Partnership Agreements are more that welcome, the European Union must under no circumstance admit Turkey as a full member. It simply does not belong in Europe geographically, culturally, historically, and politically. And here is why:

1) Geographically, Turkey is and always has been an Asian country. Its territory, comprising primarily the Anatolian peninsula, lies squarely in Asia, and its borders with Armenia, Iran, Iraq, and Syria simply underscore and reinforce this notion. Even its largest city, Istanbul, the former Constantinople, is really an Asian city. The roughly 5% of Turkish territory lying in Europe (it borders Bulgaria and Greece) is really a non-starter for a discussion on the topic.

2) Culturally, Turkey belongs to an altogether different civilization. Like its Ottoman predecessor, is a Muslim country, steeped in traditionally satrapic political institutions. Europe is and always has been a continent rooted in the Judeo-Christian tradition, and institutionally rooted in Greco-Roman democracy. Europeans should have no concern declaring Turkey's foreignness to both fundamental constitutive elements of European identity. Turkey is the heir of a great and thriving civilization that has always defined itself in antithesis to the European one. To acknowledge this is in no way diminutive or demeaning of Turkey, it merely states the obvious fact that Turkey is 'Other' from Europe. Just as Turks are proud of their civilizational heritage, Europeans should be proud of their.

3) Historically, European empires and kingdoms have had to fight to repel Turkish invasions starting in the 13th Century: the Byzantines, the Bulgars, the Serbs, and the Habsburgs. In fact, the Ottoman threat has been a driver of early European collaboration when the continent's great powers formed the Holy League, in the 17th Century, to reverse territorial gains that the Ottomans had made. In short, Europe and Turkey have always been at odds, with the latter ever attempting to gain access to its more advanced neighbours.

4) Politically, European democracies have evolved to become a model of transnational integration building that highly successful institutional architecture known as the European Union, whose shared values are embodied in the concept of "Aquis communautaire" from which Turkey has been drifting -ever more distant. Ankara is expected to drift ever more toward authoritarianism in the aftermath of the so-called "phony coup" of July 2016.
-The secular and constitutional legacy of Republican reformer Ataturk has been squandered, and the democratic advances the country had achieved between the 1990's and early 2000's have been reversed. The country is now in a process fore-islamization, as the AKP party is transforming itself from centrist religiously-inspired party (roughly equivalent to European Christian-democratic parties) to a more openly Islamic party whose reinvigorated values are being institutionalized in the state.
-National and religious minorities are regularly targeted and repressed.
-Ankara still continues to refuse to acknowledge responsibility in the genocide of the Armenians.
- It is engaging in a shameless racketeering practices by weaponizing refugee flows from the Middle East and beyond to extort economic and political favours from the EU. A practice that is utterly unacceptable and that European leaders like Angela Merkel, should not have even allowed Turkey to entertain.
-Erdogan's ever more pronounced cult of personality has led him, after introducing tight censorship and free speech limitations at home, to de facto export it to Europe itself- consider the episode of the German comedian and other critical commentaries addressed to Erdogan in European countries.
-Turkey is playing an ambiguous if not abetting role in the context of the latest wave of terrorism and radicalism surrounding ISIS and spreading from there.

All this being said, Turkey has its own path to take. This however, knowing that Turkey is different historically and culturally, and even politically, it has chosen a different path. Europe and Turkey must not be enemies, but they are not brothers. They can be business partners respecting one another and acknowledging their respective differences.

Europe has demonized Putin and imposed sanctions on Russia partly in light of developments taking place in Russia, or undertaken by Russia. However, there are surprisingly few nuances distinguishing Erdogan's Turkey from Putin's Russia- whether in its domestic or foreign policy. It would be scarcely justifiable should Bruxelles admit Ankara to the EU club, not to mention the fact that Ankara is increasingly out of place even in the NATO alliance.